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The mathematical models used by hedge funds, central banks and large investment banks, as even the smart kids at Goldman Sacks, it appears that risk assessment and the frequency with which "rare" statistically virtually impossible that bad events occur actually occur.
A black swan is an event that is truly disastrous, as it happens, but fortunately, according to investment patterns, occurs very rarely. So rarely, in fact, not makes sense to worry about it. A recent black swan that has affected the world stock markets squarely between the eyes and still flying about wildly, is the crisis of subprime mortgage market.
Mathematical models discounted the percentage of mortgages that could go wrong on such a low that the effect of a few van wrong from time to time is expected to have little effect on the total mortgage portfolio. Obviously, given the events of last year, something very bad was built in the models mathematicians.
A fat tail is a serious event or events that are considered outside the range of what is considered normal. A bell curve is generally used to demonstrate the distribution of events. If a graphic plot developments as normal events occur most of the time the highest number event would be as expected, at or very near the center of the curve.
Events that occur slightly less than normal are drawn a little further from the center, bell.
The House Financial statistics put into their models of probability of certain events as the end of the bell curve. Often many standard deviations away from the norm that the events are expected to occur once in a hundred thousand years, anyway. Imagine their surprise and not created when a number of these events occurred one after another, giving the bell curve unexpected fat tail.
What happens? How could so many very smart people models come with investment risk that have proved so consistent with real world events? How could Wall Street have so many men with brighter eeerrrrr, sorry, financial managers, chairman and CEO, expand its business in risky areas such as repackaging loans to people who have no ability to repay the investment packages that carry a AAA rating? What truth?
A good summary of the black swan and the problem of fat tail is this quote: "It's not what you do not know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just is not so" (Mark Twain?).
Mathematical models can work well in a theoretical world. In that world, economists, mathematicians, and analyzing investment bank, buying into the theory that human beings are rational creatures, and always take the actions that are in their own interests. They also buy into the absurd that markets are always right that the current price of security must be the correct price at that time because the market says so.
Unfortunately humans are often not rational. They have a marked tendency to follow each other. The herd instinct is strong. Humans can stampede, one after another in one direction and then say a swan event occurs black, as two hijacked airplanes hitting the twin towers of World Trade Center and almost immediately reversed course pack and charges in the opposite direction.
Unfortunately, the mathematical models used by large to identify and rate risk can not gain control over emotions and human behavior. Fear may become avarice and greed in fear faster than you can say buy or sell. In financial markets, often in the case of stocks, bonds, commodities, or currency, the effects of fear have multiplied over the financial influence because many investors use in structuring their investments.
Under extreme stress the black swans and fat tails seem to flourish. Events that according to the models that should only happen once in a million years can occur several times a week. Maybe the smart large are not as smart as they think they are. Do we really deserve to pay themselves millions of dollars a year in premiums over the salaries of several million dollars? It is this rape and pillage of late capitalism has reached the average investor?
About the Author:
Gerald “Taipan” Greene is a retired forex trader and portfolio manager who worked in Asia for over 20 years. The nickname was acquired in Hong Kong and is now used for a number of financial, political, and Internet business related blogs. One of them is at Bold Messenger
Article Source: ArticlesBase.com – Black Swans Fat Tails and Financial Markets
