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Bird flu is spreading rapidly in the bird population, but is still very difficult for humans to become infected.
According to Dr. Sherry Cooper, chief economist, BMO Nesbitt Burns, there is a good deal of misinformation triggering unnecessary fear and economic cost. Human infection by generally requires direct exposure to sick poultry or dead. This is most likely in areas where the poultry live in close contact with people – usually in parts of Asia, Africa and the Middle East. A human H5N1 pandemic, if it occurs, probably triggered in the emerging world, rather than in Europe or America North.
In its report entitled The avian flu crisis: economic update, Dr. Cooper explains that, unlike other natural disasters disasters or terrorism, pandemics are prolonged and widespread, so the net economic loss is significant and widespread. She said that a bird flu pandemic could lead to a considerable supply and demand effects. Widespread absenteeism and disruption of trade and dominate the supply side effects, and social distancing and fear initially increase the demand for essentials such as nonperishable food, water, medical supplies and health services, but reduce the demand for virtually all else.
World health systems are run beyond the coping capacity. Shortage number of medical equipment, supplies and personnel trained would be likely. And we could suffer long power cuts and public services and interruptions in public services. Preparation is the key for managing such a weakening, says Dr. Cooper.
"Government, businesses, individuals and public health offices to refine and develop continuity and preparedness plans and test and retest these plans, and review as the situation changes, "urges.
Dr. Cooper explains that global economic interdependence and the importance of China in the markets for commodities and exports of goods at low prices increase the potential of economic disruption of a human pandemic. So does the prodigious volume of international trade and travel. Supply chains are now global and inventories are managed on a just-in function of time. Dr. Cooper suggests that significant economic slowdown in Asia, which would result from a pandemic would reduce markedly demand for commodities and industrial materials, pushing prices downward. This would have a particularly negative impact on commodity producing countries like Canada.
People can not manifest for the producers of poultry feed, including industries, poultry processors poultry, grocery and restaurants, especially those specializing in chicken. In the U.S., the U.S. $ 30 for the poultry industry has suffered BLN, since the exports fell 28% in December, and there are concerns that a stronger contraction is forthcoming.
In addition to the poultry industry and its ancillary businesses, immediate losers would be the tourism, travel and transportation, the hospitality industry, public transport, and life insurers health, theaters, casinos, sports facilities, spectator sports facilities, religious, convention halls, restaurants, retailers of nonessential goods, and suppliers non-essential services that directly or could spread disease, such as dentists and hairdressers.
The economic model of Dr. Cooper predicts that a pandemic slightly reduce the annual growth of world GDP by 2 percentage points of what might be. A severe pandemic, similar to the Spanish flu of 1918, would reduce growth global GDP by 6 percentage points (again, from growth rates). She believes that the results are "low-ball estimates" world as economic model assumes all countries are equally affected. Most likely, the number of countries suffering more than the U.S. likely to be higher that the number of countries doing better – but even that is uncertain.
If there were a cytokine storm (as in the severe flu virus of 1918), where the system immune attack not only viruses, but the damage internal organs and tissue, pregnant women and 15-to-40 years of age who suffer the highest fatality rate. Dr. Cooper notes that many experts suggest that modern health systems can not handle acute cases of a cytokine storm much better today than it was in 1918, even in fully equipped and fully staffed modern intensive care units. "The most affected group would be younger, more productive and reproductive members the population, "says Dr. Cooper. This would have a lasting impact in reducing birth rates and aging populations and age, exacerbating poor economic performance during the coming years, and the demands and excessive increases in pension and health system. Nobody can accurately predict the characteristics of the particular strain of mutant virus that could cause a pandemic or how these features may evolve over time. "It's important to know, however, that even with a severe pandemic, approximately 99% of the world's population would survive, and travel and trade will resume as economic activity rebounds. "concludes Dr. Cooper.
About: BMO Nesbitt Burns is a leading full service offering investment company corporate, institutional and government customers access to a wide range of products and services, including investment and corporate banking, treasury services, market risk management, investment institutional and research. BMO Nesbitt Burns is a member of BMO Financial Group (TSX, NYSE: BMO).
About the Author:
Webbolt (
http://webbolt.ecnext.com)
provides an on-demand, dynamically presented, tailored, total information solution with increasingly complex and global content. Webbolt continually updates and expands its free news in 22 key topic areas.
Article Source: ArticlesBase.com – Avian Flu Crisis BMO Nesbitt Burns Economic Update
